Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment

Tessa Devakos, Christopher Hajzler, Stephanie Houle, Craig Johnston, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Ron Rautu and Temel Taskin

No 2024-11, Staff Analytical Notes from Bank of Canada

Abstract: We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.

Keywords: Economic models; Labour markets; Monetary policy; Potential output; Productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E3 E4 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff
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