Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment

Selam Abraham, Dany Brouillette, Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stephanie Houle, Mark Kim and Temel Taskin

No 2025-14, Staff Analytical Notes from Bank of Canada

Abstract: We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico.

Keywords: Economic models; Labour markets; Monetary policy; Potential output; Productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E3 E4 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bca:bocsan:25-14

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