A General Equilibrium Analysis on the Potential Effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) on African Economies

Cassius B. Cooper and Dr. Molem Sama
Additional contact information
Cassius B. Cooper: PhD Student, Pan African University, Institute of Governance Humanities and Social Science, Yaoundé University II, Yaoundé, Cameroon
Dr. Molem Sama: Professor and Head of the Department of Economics, University of Beau, Beau, Cameroon

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 2024, vol. 8, issue 4, 2064-2080

Abstract: This study investigates the potential impact of the African Free Continental Trade Area on welfare, gross domestic product, labor demand, industrial output, and trade. To achieve the objectives, the study uses the Global Trade Analysis Project database 11. The database was used to aggregate Sub-Saharan Africa into five major regions according to geographical location Western, Southern, Northern, Eastern, and Central Africa. Sectors were grouped into agriculture, services, utility and construction, transportation and communication, heavy manufacturing, light, manufacturing, and extraction. The simulation scenario was conducted for three periods; 2025, 2030, and 2035. The result shows that gross domestic product will increase to 8,277,010 trillion by 2030. Western Africa will contribute the highest share followed by Northern, and Southern Africa. Trade result reveals that import and export will increase throughout the simulation periods with the highest potential discovered in southern Africa to be 34.1% for imports and 33.9% for exports in 2035. Labor demand shows an increase in 2025 and 2035 but a decline in 2030 in all sectors except agriculture which shows a resilience demand for labor up to 0.41%. The industrial output shows an increase in all periods with huge potential in the service industry with a 22.8% increase in 2035 followed by transportation with an 18.59% increase in 2035. Welfare also shows an increase through the periods with allocative efficiency producing the highest contribution to welfare with a total of 30% increase in all periods.

Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/ ... ssue-4/2064-2080.pdf (application/pdf)
https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/arti ... n-african-economies/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bcp:journl:v:8:y:2024:i:4:p:2064-2080

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science is currently edited by Dr. Nidhi Malhan

More articles in International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science from International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dr. Pawan Verma ().