Geopolitical risk: a database of general and bilateral indices

Irma Alonso-Alvarez, Ekaterina Bukina, Marina Diakonova, Nino Khitarishvili, Javier J. Pérez and Pedro Piqueras
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Irma Alonso-Alvarez: BANCO DE ESPAÑA
Ekaterina Bukina: BANCO DE ESPAÑA
Marina Diakonova: BANCO DE ESPAÑA
Nino Khitarishvili: BANCO DE ESPAÑA
Javier J. Pérez: BANCO DE ESPAÑA
Pedro Piqueras: BANCO DE ESPAÑA

No 2602, Occasional Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive database of geopolitical risk (GPR) indices for 34 countries, constructed using a standardized textual analysis methodology applied to national news sources. Building on the framework introduced in Alonso-Alvarez et al. (2025), we calculate both general and bilateral GPR indices that reflect the intensity and origin of geopolitical tensions as perceived in domestic media narratives. The indices are derived from a dictionary-based approach applied to press articles accessed via the Factiva platform, with queries translated into 15 languages to ensure linguistic and cultural relevance. Bilateral indices focus on four key regions – Russia, China, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the Western Bloc – capturing how each country perceives external geopolitical threats. The resulting high-frequency dataset is validated through statistical robustness checks and narrative analysis of index peaks. Our work contributes to the literature by offering a scalable, globally representative tool for analyzing geopolitical risk, complementing existing measurements such as the Caldara-Lacoviello GPR index and enabling new empirical applications in macroeconomics, finance and international relations.

Keywords: geopolitical risk; geopolitical tensions; textual analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C43 E32 F51 F52 H56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 99 pages
Date: 2026-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:opaper:2603e

DOI: 10.53479/42445

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