US tariffs and Italian firms: mapping network exposure and early impact from survey data

Andrea Benecchi (), Alessandro Borin (), Francesco Conteduca, Fabrizio Leone (), Michele Mancini (), Lucia Modugno (), Matteo Mongardini (), Giulio Papini () and Patrick Zoi ()
Additional contact information
Andrea Benecchi: Bank of Italy
Alessandro Borin: Bank of Italy
Fabrizio Leone: Bank of Italy
Michele Mancini: Bank of Italy
Lucia Modugno: Bank of Italy
Matteo Mongardini: Bank of Italy
Giulio Papini: Bank of Italy
Patrick Zoi: Bank of Italy

No 993, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This paper examines the exposure of Italian firms to the US market following the 2025 tariff shock and presents early evidence of its impact using business survey data. Leveraging a unique dataset that integrates domestic firm-to-firm transactions, customs records, firm registries, and employment data, we map the production network of 1.8 million firms and quantify both direct and indirect exposure to US sales. Exposure levels vary significantly across firms and regions, with some local labour markets considerably more vulnerable than the national average. Drawing on survey data from the Bank of Italy, we find that approximately 20% of firms reported sales declines driven by tariff-related disruptions during the first three quarters of the year, although often a moderate one, and 25% expected drops in the final quarter. Linking survey responses with firm-level exposure, we show that both direct and indirect measures significantly predict negative sales outcomes and expectations driven by tariff-related disruptions. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for domestic production networks when assessing the effects of trade shocks and designing targeted policy interventions to mitigate localized economic vulnerabilities.

Keywords: trade shocks; tariffs; production networks; firm-level exposure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F61 L14 R12 R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2025-0993/QEF_993_25.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_993_25

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().