Impact of demographic change on CO₂ emissions: the role of consumption

Jhorland Ayala-García, Jaime Alfredo Bonet-Moron, Eduardo Haddad and Inácio Araújo

Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana from Banco de la Republica de Colombia

Abstract: Around the world, demographic transitions are reshaping consumption patterns and influencing environmental outcomes. In Colombia, demographic change is expected to alter household spending, reducing demand in sectors such as education and transportation while increasing consumption in healthcare. These shifts have implications for energy demand and CO₂ emissions. This study examines the relationship between demographic change and consumption behavior across age groups, using data from the 2016-2017 National Household Budget Survey and age-specific projections for 2020-2050. We use Seemingly Unrelated Regression models to estimate sectoral consumption shares based on population age and project the sector specific trends to 2050. A regional input-output model is then applied to assess the impact of projected changes in consumption on total CO₂ emissions. Findings suggest a national decline in emissions by 2050, though regional disparities emerge: Bogotá and the Central-East region may see increases, while other regions are projected to experience reductions.*****ABSTRACT: Around the world, demographic transitions are reshaping consumption patterns and influencing environmental outcomes. In Colombia, demographic change is expected to alter household spending, reducing demand in sectors such as education and transportation while increasing consumption in healthcare. These shifts have implications for energy demand and CO₂ emissions. This study examines the relationship between demographic change and consumption behavior across age groups, using data from the 2016-2017 National Household Budget Survey and age-specific projections for 2020-2050. We use Seemingly Unrelated Regression models to estimate sectoral consumption shares based on population age and project the sector specific trends to 2050. A regional input-output model is then applied to assess the impact of projected changes in consumption on total CO₂ emissions. Findings suggest a national decline in emissions by 2050, though regional disparities emerge: Bogotá and the Central-East region may see increases, while other regions are projected to experience reductions.

Keywords: Demographic change; Consumption patterns; CO₂ emissions; Population aging; climate change; Cambio demográfico; Patrones de consumo; Emisiones de CO₂; Envejecimiento de la población; Cambio climatico (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 J11 Q56 R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18
Date: 2026-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age and nep-ene
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