Integral assessment of phased investment scenarios of post-war development

Tetyana Pozhuieva and Vilayet Ismayilov

Management and Business Articles, 2025, vol. 3, issue 1, 28-36

Abstract: The purpose of the article is to develop a theoretical and methodological model of the recovery of the national economy of Ukraine in the post-war period based on an integrated approach to the analysis of the investment process. The study used formalised economic and mathematical modeling, scenario analysis, elements of dynamic programming, and a critical review of current scientific literature on post-crisis management. The empirical basis was the analytical materials of international financial organisations on the assessment of damage and recovery needs. As a result, a three-phase structure of the transformation process (survival, reconstruction, growth) was formed, for each of which the corresponding accumulation integral ∫f(t)·ω(t) dt was built. The proposed model allows quantifying not only the volume of investments, but also the strategic feasibility of their placement over time. Three recovery scenarios were modelled: inertial, optimistic-coordinated and fragmented. The results showed that the synchronisation of investments with the phase logic of transformation, and not just their absolute volume, is a crucial factor in efficiency. The model also proved to be adaptable to changes in the pace of funding and allowed for the assessment of critical time windows for action. It made it possible to interpret investments not as one-off injections, but as a continuous process of strategic alignment. This approach opened up new analytical horizons for the development of sustainable economic recovery policies. The practical value of the model was the ability to identify critical time windows for the most effective investment, build phase budgets taking into account not only macro-financial volumes but also their temporal structure, adapt recovery policies to spatial and temporal asymmetries (regional phase analysis), and strengthen the role of international partners in shaping not just funding flows but their predictable temporal architecture

Keywords: post-war reconstruction; investment integral; scenario modelling; phase integral; investment strategy; time weighting function; strategic management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdw:emsesd:v:3:y:2025:i:1:p:28-36

DOI: 10.59214/mb/1.2025.28

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