Temperature-Induced Bias in Energy Performance Certification

Oleksandr Talavera (), Haonan Tian and Liyun Zhang
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Haonan Tian: University of Birmingham
Liyun Zhang: University of Birmingham

Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of Birmingham

Abstract: We examine whether ambient temperature affects Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) scores assigned by government-accredited assessors. Using over 17 million EPCs from England and Wales (2008–2025) linked with high-frequency weather and pollution data, we find that inspection-day temperature changes reported energy-efficiency scores. The effect is nonlinear and asymmetric: sub-zero days raise scores, with the largest increase below −5C, when scores are 1.36 points higher than on 10–15C days; warmer conditions generate smaller downward adjustments. The pattern is concentrated in assessments relying on less directly verified inputs and in settings where outdoor verification is more costly, pointing to a verification-effort mechanism. Temperature-related score movements also cluster near EPC rating thresholds, where small changes can alter assigned labels and imply £5,220–7,250 property-value shifts. Temporary environmental conditions can therefore enter durable certification records and affect green-label reliability in housing markets.

Keywords: Temperature; Energy Performance Certificates; Green labels; Assessor discretion; Behavioural bias; Housing regulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D01 D91 K32 Q48 Q54 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2026-03
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