Labour markets at a crossroads: softening trends amid elevated uncertainty

Leonardo Gambacorta, Enisse Kharroubi, Emanuel Kohlscheen and Ko Munakata

No 112, BIS Bulletins from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: Labour market conditions in emerging market economies remain broadly stable, but unemployment in several advanced economies is edging up, and forward-looking indicators point to further weakening. Cyclical forces partly explain these developments, but longer-term structural forces are also at play, including deregulation and demographic pressures (ageing, migration, participation of older workers). Weaker labour markets may weigh on output, especially in the absence of productivity gains. In some emerging market economies, tighter conditions and stronger wage-price pass-through could raise the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations.

Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2025-09-25
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