Chokepoint disruptions and their macroeconomic consequences

Ibrahim Alshehri, Ryan Banerjee, Michael Chui, Anna Maddux, Ko Munakata and Fabrizio Zampolli

No 138, BIS Bulletins from Bank for International Settlements

Abstract: Rising geopolitical tensions, including trade restrictions and conflicts, are increasingly disrupting global supply chains, posing significant risks at critical chokepoints. Strong substitution effects and the use of inventories have helped to mitigate adverse output effects of chokepoint disruptions, but they often come at the cost of higher input prices. An effective policy response to chokepoint disruptions requires a tailored approach that takes account of the cause, centrality and the private sector’s ability to substitute and draw on buffers.

Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2026-10-15
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