China's Energy Economic Index Research and Outlook (2026)

Edited by Baojun Tang, Zhiqi Guan, Yun Wu and Jiamiao Wei

in CEEP-BIT Books from Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology

Abstract: Amidst profound adjustments in the global energy landscape, 2026—as the inaugural year of the 15th Five-Year Plan—marks a period where China's energy sector shoulders the dual mission of reinforcing security safeguards and cultivating new quality productive forces. This report extends the CEEP China Energy Economic Index measurement methodology, incorporates a coupling coordination degree model, and adds a new track for hydrogen energy development and application. Covering 16 core energy sub-sectors, it systematically assesses and forecasts industry economic trends across six dimensions: policy support, industry supply-demand, industry high-quality development, stock indices, financial performance, and coordination-coupling degree. The findings indicate that the energy economy is helping China's macroeconomy withstand global tariff shocks and maintain a stable and positive trajectory. In 2026, high-innovation areas such as hydrogen energy, new energy vehicle batteries, and photovoltaic modules will sustain high momentum, while nuclear power and biomass energy are accumulating synergistic development potential. Traditional sectors like thermal power need to transform their roles through technological innovation, leveraging flexible dispatch and baseload guarantee functions. This work provides decision support for policymakers to assess industry dynamics and for investors and energy enterprises to optimize their strategies.

JEL-codes: Q40 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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