Semi-Structural Model of Economy of the Southern Macroregion of Russia

Sophia Panteeva (), Sergey Arzhenovskiy () and Karen Tumanyants ()
Additional contact information
Sophia Panteeva: Bank of Russia
Sergey Arzhenovskiy: Bank of Russia
Karen Tumanyants: Bank of Russia

Russian Journal of Money and Finance, 2025, vol. 84, issue 2, 65-88

Abstract: This paper presents a modified semi-structural New Keynesian model for the Southern macroregion in gaps. The main features of the model include: the division of the economy into the Southern macroregion, the rest of Russia, and the external sector; using separate inflation components for food and non-food goods and for utility and non-utility services; taking into account the sectors of specialisation of the macroregion – agriculture and tourism; the inclusion of a fiscal block and a labour market block with a description of the dynamics of wages and unemployment; and restrictions on capital flows in the conditions of uncovered interest rate parity. The adequacy of the model is confirmed by an analysis of the impulse responses of the macro variables to shocks and by a decomposition of the output gap and inflation. The model makes it possible to formulate consistent forecasts of the key economic indicators of the Southern macroregion and to assess the impact of monetary policy on its economy.

Keywords: semi-structural model; quarterly forecast model; monetary policy; inflation; output gap; Southern macroregion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 C54 E37 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://rjmf.econs.online/upload/documents/RJMF-84 ... region-of-Russia.pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bkr:journl:v:84:y:2025:i:2:p:65-88

Access Statistics for this article

Russian Journal of Money and Finance is currently edited by Ksenia Yudaeva

More articles in Russian Journal of Money and Finance from Bank of Russia Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Olga Kuvshinova ().