Can Trade Policy Uncertainty Drive Green Innovation? Empirical Evidence From the US–China Trade War

Tingting Cao and Yifan Hu

Australian Economic Papers, 2025, vol. 64, issue 2, 153-169

Abstract: China's rapid economic growth in recent years has coincided with heightened environmental regulations and an upsurge in greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating a greater emphasis on green innovation to mitigate environmental risks. Concurrently, the US–China trade war has elevated trade policy uncertainty (TPU). This study uses the TPU surge from the trade war as a quasi‐natural experiment, employing text analysis of annual reports to assess firms' TPU perceptions. Using a difference‐in‐differences method, we find that increased TPU significantly hinders green innovation. Firms' responses vary with environmental advantages, regulation levels, and government subsidies. Mechanisms include reduced environmental investment, decreased executive attention to environmental issues, and corporate social responsibility. These findings underscore the importance of a stable trading environment for promoting green innovation.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12384

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:64:y:2025:i:2:p:153-169

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0004-900X

Access Statistics for this article

Australian Economic Papers is currently edited by Daniel Leonard

More articles in Australian Economic Papers from Wiley Blackwell
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().