Grey Horizons: Who Pays for Old Age in the 21st Century?

Paul Johnson

Australian Economic Review, 1996, vol. 29, issue 3, 261-271

Abstract: This article challenges pessimistic interpretations of the economic impact of population ageing that have been advanced by the World Bank and others. Common perceptions of an ‘old age crisis’ are shown to result from a narrow reading of demographic data. Future changes in the age structure of the population will be no greater than those already experienced and accommodated in the last fifty years, and estimates of demographic dependency ratios provide an unreliable basis for future economic projections. Although population ageing will require a larger proportion of income to be transferred from years of work to years of retirement, this cost cannot be significantly reduced by shifting from public to private pension systems. Moreover, the cost is one that we should welcome; it is the price we have to pay for longer life.

Date: 1996
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