Should We Be Sceptical about Prospects for an ‘Asian Century’?

Andrew Walter

Australian Economic Review, 2014, vol. 47, issue 3, 370-377

Abstract: type="main" xml:lang="en">

Many official and private commentators, particularly in Australia and in the Asian region, argue that the world is heading inexorably towards an ‘Asian Century’. They foresee a fundamental shift of economic and political power away from the West that will transform the world economy and global politics. I argue that, notwithstanding emerging Asia's undoubted economic achievements, this claim is premature and potentially misleading for three main reasons: implicit in many of these claims are implausible historical analogies with earlier eras of European and American dominance; linear projections of continued Asian growth outperformance may not be realised in practice; and even if rapid growth were to be sustained, the domestic and external obstacles to the collective global influence of Asia will probably remain profound. The implication is that businesses, citizens and policy-makers, especially those operating in the Asian region, will face a much more uncertain and challenging environment than is sometimes acknowledged.

Date: 2014
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