Nowcasting National GDP Growth Using Small Business Sales Growth

Cahit Guven

Australian Economic Review, 2023, vol. 56, issue 3, 381-392

Abstract: This study shows that the Xero Small Business Index (XSBI) sales growth data can be used to predict the same period's national nominal GDP growth, with high accuracy, in the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. Findings show that XSBI sales growth can predict the same month's GDP growth around two weeks earlier than the official release in the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the three‐month average of the XSBI sales growth can predict the same quarter's GDP growth, six weeks earlier than the official release in New Zealand and five weeks earlier than the official release in Australia.

Date: 2023
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https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12527

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