Employment effects of minimum wage indexing: Establishment evidence from Oregon restaurants

Stephen Miller, Gary A. Wagner and Alicia Plemmons

Economic Inquiry, 2025, vol. 63, issue 3, 681-714

Abstract: Though 18 states will index their minimum wage to the Consumer Price Index by 2025, few studies have examined indexing's differential employment effects. Leveraging a period of stability in minimum wages (2000–2007) and two distinct national geocoded databases of establishments, we explore how indexing affected employment in Oregon restaurants, one of the earliest indexing states (2003). Nearest‐neighbor matching is used as a preprocessing step before regression, pairing individual restaurants in Oregon to restaurants with similar characteristics in states where the minimum wage was unchanged. We find evidence that establishment employment falls 3.6% after indexing, implying an employment elasticity of −0.18.

Date: 2025
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