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Tariffs, taxes and wages in the age of artificial intelligence

John Gilbert, Onur Koska and Reza Oladi

Economic Inquiry, 2026, vol. 64, issue 2, 395-408

Abstract: We formulate a model of an open economy with three final goods sectors, one of which uses a continuum of tasks as inputs. Skilled labor or artificial intelligence (AI), which is produced using skilled labor and capital, can conduct these tasks. We explore the effects of technical progress in AI, showing how AI competes with skilled labor in tasks and the consequences for wage inequality and the skill premium. We consider the effectiveness of trade tariffs and a direct AI tax to counter negative impacts of advancements in AI technology on the range of tasks performed by skilled labor.

Date: 2026
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https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70048

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