 Granger causality of the inflation–growth mirror in accession countriesThe Economics of Transition, 2004, vol. 12, issue 4, 653-681 Abstract: The paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human capital and in this sense induces the growth rate decrease. Shifts in the model's credit sector productivity cause shifts in the income velocity of money that can break the otherwise stable relationship between money, inflation, and output growth. Applied to two accession countries, Hungary and Poland, a VAR system is estimated for each that incorporates endogenously determined multiple structural breaks. Results indicate Granger causality positively from money to inflation and negatively from inflation to growth for both Hungary and Poland, as suggested by the model, although there is some feedback to money for Poland. Three structural breaks are found for each country that are linked to changes in velocity trends, and to the breaks found in the other country. Date: 2004 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:etrans:v:12:y:2004:i:4:p:653-681 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article The Economics of Transition is currently edited by Philippe Aghion and Wendy Carlin More articles in The Economics of Transition from The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Contact information at EDIRC. |
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