Modeling material flow dynamics in coupled natural‐industrial ecosystems for resilience to climate change: A case study on a soybean‐based industrial ecosystem

William Farlessyost and Shweta Singh

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2025, vol. 29, issue 5, 1882-1896

Abstract: Industrial ecosystems are coupled with natural systems, which causes the material flow dynamics in the network to be affected by the mechanistic dynamics of each node. However, current material flow dynamics studies do not capture these mechanistic and nonlinear dynamics to evaluate material flows in networks, thus missing its role in designing resilient industrial ecosystems. In this work, we present a methodology to overcome this limitation and model material flow dynamics in a coupled natural‐industrial network by accounting for underlying nonlinear dynamics at each node. We propose a three‐step methodology: first, creating accurate surrogate models using liquid time‐constant (LTC) neural networks to capture node‐specific behavior; second, coupling these individual node models to simulate material flow dynamics in the network; and third, evaluating resilience by measuring the system's ability to maintain production levels under climate stress. Applied to a soybean‐based biodiesel production network in Champaign County, Illinois (2006–2096), our analysis reveals significant vulnerability differences between climate scenarios, with the RCP 8.5 scenario triggering production failures approximately 10 years earlier than RCP 4.5 (2016 vs. 2026), exhibiting higher failure frequency and requiring longer recovery periods. Smaller farms (450 ha) demonstrated substantially higher import dependency, while medium farms (500 ha) reached a critical bifurcation point around 2050 under RCP 8.5, indicating a systemic tipping point. These findings provide insights for policymakers and industrial managers to implement targeted interventions, supply chain diversification, and adaptive management strategies, thereby enhancing system resilience while offering industrial ecology practitioners a methodology for modeling material flow dynamics in a coupled natural‐industrial network.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.70087

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:inecol:v:29:y:2025:i:5:p:1882-1896

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=1088-1980

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Industrial Ecology is currently edited by Reid Lifset

More articles in Journal of Industrial Ecology from Yale University
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().