Market Excess Returns, Variance and the Third Cumulant

Jin E. Zhang, Eric C. Chang and Huimin Zhao

International Review of Finance, 2020, vol. 20, issue 3, 605-637

Abstract: In this paper, we develop an equilibrium asset pricing model for market excess returns, variance and the third cumulant by using a jump‐diffusion process with stochastic variance and jump intensity in Cox et al. (1985) production economy. Empirical evidence with the S&P 500 index and options from January, 1996 to December, 2005 strongly supports our model prediction that the lower the third cumulant, the higher the market excess returns. Consistent with existing literature, the theoretical mean–variance relation is supported only by regressions on risk‐neutral variance. We further demonstrate empirically that the third cumulant explains significantly the variance risk premium.

Date: 2020
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