Patent Statistics as an Innovation Indicator? Evidence from the Hard Disk Drive Industry

Mitsuru Igami and Jai Subrahmanyam

The Japanese Economic Review, 2019, vol. 70, issue 3, 308-330

Abstract: We assess the usefulness of patent statistics as an indicator of innovation, using a direct measure of innovation in the hard disk industry (1976–1998). Three findings emerge: (i) patents “predict” innovations better than a random guess, and a simple refinement makes them more useful; (ii) conditional on actually innovating, conglomerates and larger firms patent more than specialised startups and smaller firms; and (iii) patent reforms seem to make the patent–innovation relationship nonstationary. These results suggest that researchers should use caution when comparing patents of different types of firms and across years.

Date: 2019
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