Predictability and Prediction

A. S. C. Ehrenberg and J. A. Bound

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 1993, vol. 156, issue 2, 167-194

Abstract: A result can be regarded as routinely predictable when it has recurred consistently under a known range of different conditions. This depends on the previous analysis of many sets of data, drawn from different populations. There is no such basis of extensive experience when a prediction is derived from the analysis of only a single set of data. Yet that is what is mainly discussed in our statistical texts. The paper discusses the design and analysis of studies aimed at achieving routinely predictable results. It uses two running case history examples.

Date: 1993
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