Oil price uncertainty and savings in South Africa

Diksha Dave and Goodness C. Aye

OPEC Energy Review, 2015, vol. 39, issue 3, 285-297

Abstract: Oil prices have become increasingly important to determine indicators such as inflation; this in turn affects savings and investments. This paper investigates the impact of the volatility of oil prices on savings in South Africa using quarterly data covering the period 1960–2014. The study used the GARCH-in-mean VAR model. This model also provides a way of examining the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil prices on savings. The outcome of this study proves that oil price uncertainty which is measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price affects South Africa's savings in a negative way. The responses of savings to a positive and negative oil price shocks are symmetric in both direction and magnitude.

Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/opec.12049 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:39:y:2015:i:3:p:285-297

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://ordering.onli ... /%28ISSN%291753-0237

Access Statistics for this article

OPEC Energy Review is currently edited by Angela U. Agoawike

More articles in OPEC Energy Review from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().