On Population and the International Order

Geoffrey McNicoll

Population and Development Review, 2025, vol. 51, issue 1, 103-123

Abstract: This essay expores demographic effects on the international order over the postwar decades and potentially through the next half‐century. Such effects derive from the relative sizes of populations and labor forces among states, contrasts in age distributions (resulting from the regionally staggered timing of fertility decline), and high levels of international migration, fueled by economic disparities and civil conflict. In coming decades, differential population growth and aging—in some states, entrenchment of population decline—will shift the global distribution of labor away from East Asia and Europe and toward South and West Asia and especially Africa. Short‐range migration may be pressed by environmental change; longer‐range migration toward rich countries, much of it illicit and already an intractable public policy issue in many of them, will face increased societal resistance and stronger efforts to police entry. The future international order will see a states system with the Global North further demographically marginalized; India as an emerging economic‐demographic superpower, joining a fast‐aging China and plausibly a less internationally engaged United States; and a demographically dominant Africa with as yet a wholly unclear place in the global political economy. Although not part of standard demographic projections, there are extreme global warming scenarios and other disaster eventualities that could be radically transformative of this order.

Date: 2025
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