Trends and Decomposition of Changes in Mortality in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries, 1950–2019

Marcia C. Castro, Cassio M. Turra and Jamie Ponmattam

Population and Development Review, 2025, vol. 51, issue 1, 295-321

Abstract: From 1950 to 2019, all countries experienced an increase in life expectancy at birth. However, the magnitude and pace of change varied. Lower income countries experienced relatively larger increases, leading to a convergence process. Nevertheless, disparities remained pronounced in comparison to wealthier countries. In accordance with the health transition model, countries typically observe a decline in mortality rates by first achieving greater gains in young and adult ages. In this study, we build on the existing literature on health transition to demonstrate that by 2019, 55 percent of the 118 low‐ and middle‐income countries analyzed had reached a life expectancy at birth of at least 70 years. Notably, only two countries from sub‐Saharan Africa met this threshold. Additionally, 54 percent of the countries transitioned into the “cardiovascular revolution” stage, where improvements in adult mortality significantly increased life expectancy at birth. Meanwhile, 49 percent advanced to the “slowing the aging process” stage, characterized by greater gains in life expectancy from ages 65 and older than those aged 30–60. However, when applying a more restrictive criterion focused on ages above 80, this proportion drops to 19 percent. The results demonstrate an ongoing process of divergence–convergence between high‐ and low‐income countries and within middle‐ and low‐income groups.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.70000

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:popdev:v:51:y:2025:i:1:p:295-321

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0098-7921

Access Statistics for this article

Population and Development Review is currently edited by Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll

More articles in Population and Development Review from The Population Council, Inc.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().