Unemployment Expectations: The Impact of Private Information on Income Uncertainty

Richard T. Curtin

Review of Income and Wealth, 2003, vol. 49, issue 4, 539-554

Abstract: The formation and accuracy of unemployment expectations are investigated in this paper. Unemployment expectations were found to contain predictive information that was not captured by past trends in unemployment and other economic variables. The predictive content of expectations was based on private information about future unemployment and overall economic prospects. The data indicated a greater consistency with the rational expectations hypothesis than with adaptive, extrapolative, and error‐learning models, although households did not optimally use all available information. The data indicate that unemployment expectations are to an important extent derived from more general expectations about the future performance of the economy.

Date: 2003
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0034-6586.2003.00103.x

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:revinw:v:49:y:2003:i:4:p:539-554

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.blackwell ... bs.asp?ref=0034-6586

Access Statistics for this article

Review of Income and Wealth is currently edited by Conchita D'Ambrosio and Robert J. Hill

More articles in Review of Income and Wealth from International Association for Research in Income and Wealth Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().