Trade Effects of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict: Can Neutral Countries Really Fish in Troubled Waters?

Kazunobu Hayakawa and Satoru Kumagai

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2026, vol. 73, issue 3

Abstract: We investigate the trade effects of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict. Specifically, we examine the impact of multinational enterprises (MNEs) from Western countries on exports to Russia from neutral countries. To accomplish this, we investigate exports from 36 neutral countries. We found that, on average, neutral countries significantly increased their exports to Russia after its invasion. However, the increase in exports to Russia was smaller in neutral countries with a greater presence of MNEs from Western countries (e.g., a 51% decrease in exports from a neutral country with their greatest presence).

Date: 2026
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https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.70060

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Working Paper: Trade Effects of the Russia–Ukraine Conflict: Can Neutral Countries Really Fish in Troubled Waters? (2024)
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