As simple as possible but not simpler: structural sensitivity testing of a dynamic model of adolescent overweight and obesity

Eduard Romanenko, Jack Homer and Nanna Lien

System Dynamics Review, 2023, vol. 39, issue 2, 125-139

Abstract: We recently published results from an SD model of adolescent overweight and obesity using data from 31 European countries that participate in the Health Behavior in School‐Aged Children (HBSC) study. During model development, we sought to identify a feedback structure with high explanatory power that avoided speculative relationships. Expert reviewers generally agreed with our modeling decisions, but two decisions did raise questions: (1) excluding the influences of food environment and built environment, for which HBSC provided no data; and (2) including five causal links that were supported statistically but might be considered disputable. To address the reviewers' questions, we created four possible model structures and performed automated calibration followed by intervention testing and ranking. We then compared the goodness‐of‐fit and intervention results. We discuss implications for how to move forward with the model, including through additional data gathering. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

Date: 2023
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