International remittances, migration and primary commodities

Stephen Snudden

The World Economy, 2018, vol. 41, issue 11, 2934-2953

Abstract: This paper documents the global crude oil market as a key driver of international migration and remittances. Structural estimation documents that crude oil supply and demand shocks induce sizeable remittances flows. The sign and magnitude of remitter outflows differ across countries and structural shocks. A multilateral global general equilibrium model is used to show how oil‐exporting remitters generate international remittance and migration spillovers from crude oil price movements. Remittees’ economic outcomes from remittances and migration channels are found to be dominated by terms of trade channels for shocks to the global market for crude oil. Due to this, studies of remittance flows need to account for the source of the commodity price movement if using the correlation between remittee real GDP and remittance inflows.

Date: 2018
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