Inflation, inflation risks and asset returns

Jo Corkish and David Miles

Bank of England working papers from Bank of England

Abstract: If low and stable inflation is maintained then the economic environment in the United Kingdom will be very different from any sustained period in the post-war era. This may have significant implications for financial markets: asset prices, the demand and supply for various types of financial contract, and the structure of financial intermediation are likely to be affected by a low inflationary environment. This paper examines the empirical evidence on the links between asset returns, inflation and inflation variability. The real returns on a range of financial and physical assets and are calculated a model of inflation expectations and inflation variability developed. The impact of anticipated inflation, inflation shocks and the variability of inflation on asset values are then estimated.

Date: 1994-11
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