Eine Überprüfung der Informationsquellen für Inflationserwartungen: Sind die Informationsquellen zur Bildung von Inflationserwartungen systematisch verzerrt?

Kaiser Timo Pascal ()
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Kaiser Timo Pascal: Hochschule Pforzheim, Fachgebiet Volkswirtschaftslehre, Brühlstr. 3, 75175 Pforzheim, Germany

ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, 2023, vol. 72-73, issue 1, 340-378

Abstract: An investigation of the sources of information for inflation expectations. Former findings show that inflation expectations don’t follow the Rational Expectation Hypothesis. Instead of cognitive limitations lacks by the sources of information are considered as reason in this paper. The uncertainty about true interrelations in an economy is an information problem for itself. Sources of information can contradict each other, so weighting is necessary. In a review the current state of research about incentives for medias, for private and for public forecasters, and for central banks which leads to the production of inflation expectation biasing information is presented. Due to selection effects the own impressions and people of the social environment aren’t reliable sources as well. Solving the problem of biased sources of information for inflation expectations is difficult.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1515/ordo-2023-2002

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