A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council Business Cycle

Alhassan Abdullah Mohammed
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Alhassan Abdullah Mohammed: International Monetary Fund

Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 2011, vol. 6, issue 3, 1-23

Abstract: This paper constructs a coincident indicator for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) area business cycle. The resulting coincident indicator provides a reliable measure of the GCC business cycle over the last decade, where the GCC coincident index and the real GDP growth have moved closely together. Since the indicator is constructed using a small number of common factors, the strong correlation between the indicator and real GDP growth points to a high degree of commonality across GCC economies. The timing and direction of movements in macroeconomic variables are characterized with respect to the coincident indicator. Finally, to obtain a meaningful economic interpretation of the latent factors, their behavior is compared to the observed economic variables.

Keywords: GCC monetary union; factor models; GDFM; business-cycle indicator (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.2202/1475-3693.1302

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