Causal State-Dependent Local Projections

Joel M. David, Raffaella Giacomini, Xiyu Jiao and Weining Wang

Bristol Economics Discussion Papers from School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK

Abstract: State-dependent local projections (LPs) are widely used to estimate how responses to exogenous aggregate shocks vary as a function of observable state variables, yet their causal interpretation remains unclear. We show that this interpretation obtains under the sufficient condition that the conditional mean is linear in the aggregate shock at each horizon, and that this condition holds in a broad class of canonical micro–macro environments, including first-order perturbation solutions of heterogeneous-agent models and macro-finance models. Under this condition, LPs recover causal impulse responses without requiring specification of the full data-generating process. We further show that the causal interpretation of state-dependent LPs is robust to the choice of state variable. By contrast, commonly used linear interaction LPs generally fail to recover causal objects. We therefore develop a sieve-based nonparametric LP estimator that restores causal interpretation and delivers valid pointwise and uniform inference in micro–macropanels. Empirically, allowing for nonparametric state dependence materially changes both the pattern of heterogeneous firm investment responses and their aggregate implications for the transmission of monetary policy shocks

Date: 2026
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