Developing Math Talent Worldwide: Evidence from a Global RCT*

Ruchir Agarwal and Patrick Gaule

Bristol Economics Discussion Papers from School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK

Abstract: Many individuals with exceptional ability may never realize their potential. Whether expanding access to structured online instruction can unlock such learning remains an open question. We study this by randomly assigning 620 students from 44 countries to a combinatorics course or self-study. Assignment raised exam performance by 0.16 SD, but engagement varied widely and was unpredictable (R2 ≈ 0.09). Using random assignment as an instrument for engagement, we estimate gains of 0.66 SD for fully engaged students, with sizeable gains among a small subset later competing in the IMO. Access generates large gains, but only when engagement is sustained.

Date: 2026
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