Mode Choice for Leisure Travel in Europe: Simulating Future Transport Policies

Jakob Roth, Laura Schwab and Beat Hintermann

Working papers from Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel

Abstract: The European travel sector is experiencing a transformation driven by increased climate awareness and policy measures aimed at reducing external costs such as emissions. This study examines how Swiss travelers respond to these developments, using a stated preference experiment including the modes train, night train, car, and airplane. Employing nested logit models, we find a significant willingness-to-pay for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) of CHF 94 per ton of CO2e. Based on the estimated coefficients, we evaluate the impacts of four policy scenarios: an aviation tax (CHF 30), a night train subsidy (CHF 20), a SAF blending quota, and a market outlook for 2030. These scenarios are benchmarked against the first-best Pigovian tax on transport externalities. Assessing demand shifts, consumer surplus, and external costs, we find that subsidizing night train prices, the aviation tax, and the 2030 scenario increase welfare, whereas a 6% SAF mandate reduces it.

JEL-codes: D6 Q5 R4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm and nep-tre
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/08

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