Parametric Estimation of Thailand's Potential Output

Parisun Chantanahom, Noppadol Buranathanang, Warangkana Imudon, Yuwawan Rattakul and Prapan Kiatkomol
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Parisun Chantanahom: Bank of Thailand
Noppadol Buranathanang: Bank of Thailand
Warangkana Imudon: Bank of Thailand
Yuwawan Rattakul: Bank of Thailand
Prapan Kiatkomol: Bank of Thailand

No 2002-07, Working Papers from Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Abstract: This study estimates the difference between Potential Output and Actual Output during 1983-2000. The methods used are Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU), Stochastic Frontier Production Function, Hodrick and Prescott Multivariate filter and Structural Vector Autoregressive Regression (SVAR). The study concludes that potential output calculated from NAIRU is more suitable for Thailand than other methods. Potential output in year 2000 grows 4.3 percent and output gap is around 7 percent of actual output. The findings do not fully accommodate changes in technology. Structural shift in 1997 makes measurement of TFP very difficult.

Keywords: currency crisis; early warning indicators; leading indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2002-11
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