Investment Cycles, Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy

Roong Poshyananda Mallikamas, Yunyong Thaicharoen and Daungporn Rodpengsangkaha
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Roong Poshyananda Mallikamas: Bank of Thailand
Yunyong Thaicharoen: Bank of Thailand
Daungporn Rodpengsangkaha: Bank of Thailand

No 2003-04, Working Papers from Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Abstract: This paper seeks to answer two main questions. First, given a relatively small contribution of private investment to output growth at present, will the recovery of output be anemic? And second, if private investment is crucial to sustainable output growth, what more could Thailand do to enhance private investment at this juncture? The paper is organized into three chapters. Chapter I explores the movements or cycles of output and private investment over the past few decades and assesses the importance of private investment as a contributor to output growth. Not only so, this chapter provides insights into what took place during the 1990s, focusing in particular on the deterioration of investment efficiency in the period leading up to the 1997 crisis. Chapter II investigates the various determinants of private investment, specifically, returns on investment, cost of investment, availability of financing, and the “confidence” factor. It also provides forecasts of private investment based on a range of plausible scenarios of its determinants. Finally, Chapter III offers some policy suggestions for sustainable private investment growth.

Pages: 54 pages
Date: 2003-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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