 THE PROBABILITY OF WINNING WARREN BUFFETT’S BILLION DOLLARSMichael John Sullivan Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, 2015, vol. 9, issue 2, 40-58 Abstract: Stated in the contest rules the probability of winning the NCAA College Basketball Tournament “Quicken Loans Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge” is one in 9.2 quintillion (9.2 x 1018). This is calculated based on each team having an even chance of 50% to win any given Tournament game. In this paper, I use two alternative methodologies to calculate the probability of teams to win individual games and use these probabilities to calculate the overall probability of achieving a perfect 2014 NCAA Tournament bracket. Based on Las Vegas closing point spreads, I find the probability of having a perfect 2014 NCAA Tournament bracket is approximately one in 1.31 quadrillion (1.31 x 1015). Alternatively, using Conlen and Silver (2014) estimated probabilities, I find the probability is approximately one in 1.57 quadrillion (1.57 x 1015). These alternative methodologies produce surprisingly similar probabilities and are lower (better) by a factor of approximately 6,000 to 8,000 times than the probability stated in contest rules. Keywords: Probability Theory; Gambling (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:buc:jgbeco:v:9:y:2015:i:2:p:40-58 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Journal of Gambling Business and Economics is currently edited by Leighton Vaughan Williams, Nottingham Business School More articles in Journal of Gambling Business and Economics from University of Buckingham Press |
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