THE CAUSALITY BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, UNEMPLOYMENT AND TAXATION: A REVISITED ANALYSIS OF THE OKUN’S LAW

Jean-François Verne

Brussels Economic Review, 2007, vol. 50, issue 3, 361-383

Abstract: En recourant à une analyse en données de panel concernant 15 pays de l’OCDE sur la période 1979-2006, cet article revisite la loi d’OKUN en intégrant aux variables taux de croissance du PIB et variation du taux de chômage, les taux d’impôts sur les revenus, les profits et les biens et services mesurés en pourcentage du PIB. A travers des modèles de causalité bivariée et trivariée, ce papier confirme la relation d’OKUN pour l’ensemble des pays de l’échantillon et invalide les sens de causalité entre croissance, chômage et impôts décrits par la théorie de l’offre. / By means of an analysis in data panel regarding 15 OECD countries over the period 1979-2006, this article revisits the Okun’s Law and joins into variables growth rate of the GDP and variation of the unemployment rate, the tax rates on income, corporate and consumption measured as percentage of the GDP. Using bi-varied and tri-varied causality models this paper confirms the OKUN’s relation concerning the sample countries and invalidates the causal directions between growth, unemployment and taxes as described by the supply side theory.

Keywords: Causalité/Causality; Données de panel/Data Panel; Croissance économique/Economic Growth; Chômage/Unemployment; Impôts/Taxation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C20 C23 E23 E24 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
Note: This is a translation of: La causalité entre la croissance économique, le chômage et les impots :une analye revisitée de la Loi d’OKUN
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