Caractéristiques de l'information, surcharge d'information et qualité de la prédiction

Philémon Rakoto

ACCRA, 2005, vol. 11, issue 1, 23-38

Abstract: In a context of information overload, the cognitive psychology shows that the fact of increasing the quantity of available information harms in prediction quality. It is essential to make the distinction between relevant, redundant and not relevant data and to examine their respective effects on prediction quality. The author predicts that only redundant data damages prediction quality. The author conducted an experiment study within the framework of which the subjects simulated a commercial loan decision. The quantity of available data was manipulated so that there is a weak, an average or a high level, which gave place to three versions of the application for credit. Each lender predicted the financial health of six companies borrowers. The results of the study show that the increase of the quantity of redundant data harms in prediction quality. The obtained results suggest that a possible information dissemination strategy would consist in targeting the users and in supplying them only the relevant data in their task. The results demonstrate as well the utility of prediction aids in a context of information overload.

Keywords: information overload; relevant and redundant data; laboratory experiment; prediction of financial failure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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