Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?

Muriel Barlet and Laure Crusson

Economie & Prévision, 2009, vol. n° 188, issue 2, 23-41

Abstract: The two ?oil shocks? of the 1970s cut French GDP growth. Since that period, sudden oil-price increases have been viewedas a major cause of economic slowdown. We estimate VAR models and Markov-Switching models to evaluate the impactof oil-price rises on French growth. Our results indicate a breakdown of the link between oil prices and economic activityin the early 1980s. Over the period 1980-2006, our estimates show a slight negative effect of oil-price increases only inlow-growth phases. Our models also point to slacker foreign demand after an oil-price rise ? a phenomenon that indirectlyaffects GDP growth.

Keywords: oil shocks; GDP growth rate; breakpoints; VAR models; Markov-Switching models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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