Impacts économiques d’un modèle épidémiologique: le cas guadeloupéen de COVID19 dans un modèle EGC-MS-SMA

Sébastien Mathouraparsad, Bernard Decaluwé and Sébastien Régis

Mondes en développement, 2023, vol. n° 204, issue 4, 99-130

Abstract: Using a computable general equilibrium model, we simulated the economic effects related to the health crisis in the case of a small island economy that depends on the outside world. The model assumes a supply shock (closure of non-priority activities), a labor productivity shock (linked to the absenteeism of infected cases), and a demand shock (lockdown reducing the consumption of non-priority goods and services and increasing that of essential goods and services). According to our results, whatever the shock envisaged, the macroeconomic effects are very negative, with a fall in GDP, an increase in unemployment, and the economic crisis also increasing household monetary poverty.

Keywords: Covid; lockdown; CGE; epidemiological model; monetarypoverty; small island economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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