Horizons 2040: la production de scénarios prospectifs labiles. Les construire, s’en servir, les dépasser

Jean André Doeuvre

Mondes en développement, 2024, vol. N° 206, issue 2, 31-42

Abstract: Over the past two years, France's tourism development Agency has carried out a significant amount of forward-looking analysis, enabling tourism players to anticipate developments in the main drivers of change. This work, aimed at anticipating the post-Covid upturn, has been extended to include a prospective exploration. 5 major systems covering a total of 32 factors of change were explored. This approach led to the production of 4 scenarios. The dynamism of tourism and its geographical reach are the two axes used to design each scenario. The approach is complemented by quantitative estimates for 8 key indicators of the French tourism economy, and specific analyses for 16 types of tourism. An extensive communication campaign was launched in December 2023. This global forward-looking approach applied to tourism is an invitation to become aware of the major issues at stake in preparing territories and companies to organize the tourism of 2040, with regional and sectoral variations, not forgetting the awareness-raising of young tourism students.

Keywords: prospective; tourism; territories; actors; scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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