Démographie d'une académie. L'Académie des sciences (Institut de France) de 1666 à 2030

Henri Leridon

Population (french edition), 2004, vol. 59, issue 1, 83-116

Abstract: Most academies are closed societies : members are admitted by election and remain until their death, and the total population usually remains constant over a given period. The demography of a closed body of this kind is simple : the annual intake is strictly determined by the annual ?exits?, i.e. deaths, which is an exogenous variable. As a result, the rate of intake and the length of service in the institution are fully related, and also depend on age at election. In a con-text where the length of life is increasing (via the fall in mortality at ages above 60), the mean age of the population can only rise?unless the Academy elects ever younger members, which, in turn, reduces the rate of renewal. A more efficient solution is to set an age at which a seat is declared vacant. This article begins with a summary of the main mechanisms at work in a stationary population. We then provide a brief overview of the history of the Académie des Sciences between 1666 and 2001 and a reconstruction of the evolution of its population (1,039 members over this period). After some comparisons with other academies, we conclude with the results of 30-year projections based on different hypotheses for changes in entry and exit rules?in particular the changes resulting from the amendments to the statutes adopted in 2002.

Date: 2004
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