Partie I. L’étau se resserre. Perspectives 2023-2024 pour l’économie mondiale et la zone euro

Eric Heyer and Xavier Timbeau

Revue de l'OFCE, 2023, vol. N° 182, issue 3, 9-140

Abstract: The slowdown in the global economy has been confirmed. The eurozone is almost stagnant, while US growth seems to be holding up better. In the second quarter of 2023, US GDP was more than 6% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2019. Comparatively, the situation is less favourable for the largest European countries. Thus, German GDP is only 0.2 percentage point higher than at the end of 2019. These differences in growth trajectories are mainly related to the dynamics of household consumption. The massive support packages put in place during the pandemic have been more extensive in the United States. In addition, US households drew more on their savings than households in European countries. As for the emerging countries, the end of the ?zero-Covid? strategy has led to a rebound in activity, but this seems to be short-lived, since growth slowed in the second quarter of 2023.

Date: 2023
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