Stay, Split or Overthrow: Theory and Evidence on Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict

Joan Esteban, Sabine Flamand, Massimo Morelli and Dominic Rohner

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

Abstract: This paper proposes a simple model aimed at predicting under what conditions on fundamentals one should expect that a conflict, conditional on occurring, takes the form of a secessionist conflict or centrist conflict. We show that the relative group size of the involved opposition group, the relative intensity of perceived cultural differences, and the time discount factor, all affect the relative likelihood of secessionist conflict over centrist conflict in a clear manner, leading to testable pre-dictions supported by the data.

Keywords: Ethnic Groups; Preference Similarities; Patience; Secessionist Conflict; Centrist Conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C72 D74 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-22
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cam:camdae:2621

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