Caught in the Net: Patterns and Predictors of Fraud Incidence in Ireland

Danish Us-Salam, Anu Jose and Jane Kelly
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Danish Us-Salam: Central Bank of Ireland
Anu Jose: Central Bank of Ireland, University of Galway
Jane Kelly: Central Bank of Ireland

No 07/RT/26, Research Technical Papers from Central Bank of Ireland

Abstract: Fraud and scams are an increasingly complex and global challenge, yet evidence on their impact on individuals remains limited. Using a broadly nationally representative survey of nearly 3,000 adults in Ireland, this study maps consumer fraud journeys, including whether individuals are targeted, whether they lose money, and what follows in terms of reporting and recovery. More than one in three respondents reported experiencing fraud, and almost two-thirds of these individuals lost money as a result. A prediction exercise shows that the likelihood of experiencing fraud is strongly influenced by behavioural factors, while demographic characteristics such as age, education, or income also play a role. Fraud-specific literacy significantly reduces predicted fraud experience, whereas general financial literacy does not. Greater use of digital and financial products increases predicted fraud experience. Risky online behaviours—including shopping on unfamiliar websites, sharing payment details through insecure channels, and sending money to unknown individuals—emerge as the strongest behavioural predictor of fraud experience. These results highlight the rationale for current multi-faceted and cross-agency approaches, which seek to improve public awareness and education specific to fraud, while also strengthening digital and financial system safeguards.

Keywords: Firm Heterogeneity; Firm Sensitivity; Aggregate Fluctuations; Machine Learning. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 D22 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04
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