An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Revenue Projections

Congressional Budget Office

No 56499, Reports from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: This report assesses the quality of the revenue projections that CBO has made since 1982 by comparing them with actual revenue collections. Specifically, it looks at the projections for the budget year (the next fiscal year after the year in which the projections are made) and for the sixth year of the agency’s baseline projection period (including the current year). The average error for CBO’s budget-year projections is 1.2 percent, indicating that CBO has slightly overestimated revenues. For the agency’s sixth-year projections, the average error is greater—5.6 percent.

JEL-codes: H29 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-08-19
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbo:report:56499

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