FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE FROM ROMANIA USING HIERARCHICAL TIME SERIES

Marinoiu Cristian
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Marinoiu Cristian: PETROLEUM-GAS UNIVERSITY OF PLOIESTI

Annals - Economy Series, 2016, vol. 4, 91-97

Abstract: In this work we present a forecast of the evolution of the number of unemployed people from Romania, at the national, macroregions and gender (male and female) levels. By analyzing the aggregation method of the available data, it results that their adequate model of representation is the one of the hierarchical time series. The pyramidal, hierarchical relation between components of the series results in a high degree of correlation between the series and therefore the forecast of these particular instances of multiple time series requires adequate treatment. The paper lists several forecasting methods proposed in recent years, and more attention is given to the optimal combination method, used to simultaneously forecast the number of unemployed people for the categories mentioned above.

Keywords: hierarchical time series; forecasting; unemployed people (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cbu:jrnlec:y:2016:v:4:p:91-97

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